FREMONT, CA: The expected increase in the number of people living with dementia is largely due to population ageing and expansion. This emphasises the need for research on disease-modifying treatments, low-cost interventions, and novel modifiable risk factors for illness prevention or postponement. The goal of the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), and Risk Factors Study 2019 was to forecast the prevalence of dementia from 2019 to 2050, based on three risk factors: high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking.
In a decomposition analysis, the researchers evaluated the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population ageing, and population growth. By using relative risks and forecasts of risk factor prevalence, the researchers were able to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally, regionally, and by nation.
According to the study, the number of people with dementia would rise from 57.4 million in 2019 to 152.8 million cases in 2050. Despite considerable anticipated increases in the number of people living with dementia, the age-standardized both-sex prevalence remained steady between 2019 and 2050. Globally, more women than men had dementia in 2019, according to GBD estimates. This trend is expected to continue until 2050.
The smallest percentage changes in the number of projected cases of dementia were reported in high-income Asia-Pacific and western Europe, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected cases of dementia reported in high-income Asia-Pacific. North Africa and the Middle East, on the other hand, saw the biggest percentage changes in the number of anticipated dementia cases, as well as eastern Sub-Saharan Africa.
The GBD 2019 study's expected increases in cases that could be attributed in part to population growth and ageing, but the proportional relevance of these factors varies by world region. The majority of the rises in Sub-Saharan Africa were due to population expansion, while the majority of the increases in east Asia were due to population ageing.